Climate Change: The debate in Geobulletin (continued)

31/01/2013 in Uncategorized

Climate change – The Short Story (William McClenney) (continued)

Between 6,000 and 7,000 years ago, a period known to geologists and paleoclimatologists as the Holocene Climate Optimum, sea levels peaked between 1.5 to a maximum-found 8 meters higher than today (average in the literature seems to be about 2.5-3.5 meters), and during the Eemian Optimum some 20 meters higher than today. During the seven post MPT ice ages sea levels dropped some 100 or more meters below present, the water tied up in the miles-thick ice sheets that have spread in North America as far south as Kansas. These are just some of the facts of the abrupt climate changes which we, as Homo sapiens, have experienced.

General Circulation Models, of which the IPCC references 20+, have yet to produce a single known abrupt paleoclimate change fed with the proxy data. The latest GCM models produce predictions based on a variety of input data and complex equations which few of us understand. But for all the complexity and investment, they are still only predictions.

Belief in, and acting as a result of, such predictions has opened up what may be the first chapter of faith-based science.The astonishing enormity of natural climate change provides a harrowing appreciation of massive sea level ‘noise’ that can range to over 400 feet (with a beat of lesser, rank-and-file swings, think D-O oscillations) and temperature shifts that lord over all future fantasies you have yet heard.

What might be quite ironic is that if GHG predicted global warming is in fact real, and, at half of a precessional cycle, we are near to the cliff of the next natural shift to an ice age, we may find ourselves needing to generate as much GHGs as possible to ease our transition into the next ice age. So as I said at the beginning, doing something about climate change is not necessarily a bad thing. Doing the right thing might prove to be quite another. The ice ages and associated interglacials are well known to be paced by the eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles in earth’s rickety orbit. These we will do nothing about. D-O oscillations show strong evidence of being tied to the 1,500 year cycle of solar output,something we cannot change.

Be ever thoughtful of both facts and predictions before leaping to a conclusion. It was in fact a LEAP that terminated the last interglacial, the cold Late Eemian Aridity Pulse which lasted 468 years and ended with a precipitous drop into the Wisconsin ice age. And yes, we were indeed there. We had been on the stage as our stone-age selves about the same length of time during that interglacial that our civilization have been during this one.

 

3 antwoorde op Climate Change: The debate in Geobulletin (continued)

  1. Wobbly – so wat moet mens doen?

    To burn, or not to burn.
    That is the Question:
    – Whether ’tis nobler in the mind
    to suffer the ups and downs of
    outrageous osscilations, or to
    take arms against an unsteady sea,
    and by opposing calm it…

    🙂

    • deonleroux het gesê op 31/01/2013

      1. The Pleistocene Period (F.B. Zeuner,1959) p.202: ” … the fluctuations of solar radiation, caused by the perturbations of the earth’s orbit, provide a satisfactory explanation for the alternating glacial and interglacial phases. They do not, however, explain the Ice-age as a whole.”
      2. Die Ystyd is aangevoer deur die ontstaan van die Drake Seestraat tussen Suid-Amerika en Antarktika 49 miljoen jaar gelede gedurende die Tersier weens plaattektoniek. Die Poolstroom het daarna Antarktika geisoleer van warm ekwatoriale waters en laat afkoel totdat ysplate vanaf 34Ma ontstaan het. Hoe meer ys opgebou het op Antarktika, hoe meer globale afkoeling, wat gelei het tot die Ystyd gedurende die Pleistoseen. Mid-oseaniese vulkanisme kan tydelik die oseane verwarm en die langtermyn-globale afkoeling vertraag. (J.P. le Roux,2012, Sedimentary Geology).
      3. Nog ‘n faktor vir klimaatsverandering is wisselende hitte-uitset deur die son self (sien bo).

      Hoe vermetel van die nietige mens om te dink hy is die oorsaak van klimaatsverandering!

  2. rosiemetdorings het gesê op 31/01/2013

    Ek sal hierdie artikels later meer aandagtig wil lees. ander dinge hou my tans vrek aan die gang.